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March 27, 2008

Sweet 16: No. 12 Villanova vs. No. 1 Kansas

By Shaun Gogna
Don Best Associate Editor

Outside of possibly North Carolina, no team has exerted its will on opponents through the first two rounds of the tournament more than Kansas has. After dispatching Portland State by 24 points in Round 1, the Jayhawks fired back with a second half drubbing of UNLV for a 75-56 Round 2 victory.

On Friday, Kansas will take its nine-game winning streak to Detroit for a Sweet 16 matchup against the surprising Villanova Wildcats and their three-guard attack.

It's likely that Kansas will take the same approach to this game as it did versus UNLV in the previous round. The Jayhawks took advantage of the Rebels' size and lack of an inside presence, then used its depth to completely outlast UNLV. Villanova has the same inside deficiencies as the Rebels and doesn't have a lot of contributors off the bench.

What Villanova does have is a talented three-guard set that can at least challenge the Jayhawk guards. If guards Scottie Reynolds, Dante Cunningham and Corey Fisher can continue to play at an elite level, Villanova can stay in this game. However, that won't be an easy task.

Staring across mid-court will be several ultra-talented guards in Kansas uniforms. Brandon Rush, Mario Chalmers, Russell Robinson and Sherron Collins all scored in double figures against UNLV, totaling 52 of Kansas' 75 points in the win.

However, the Rebels did find a slight chink in KU's thick armor. UNLV G Wink Adams was able to post 25 points and fellow G Curtis Terry put up 12. No slight to the Runnin' Rebs, but if those two can put up almost 40 points, then the Villanova guards do have reason to be optimistic.

Again, the problem for Nova will not be at the guard position. Although the Jayhawks allowed points from the outside, the inside play of forwards Darrell Arthur and Darnell Jackson thwarted any offensive presence in the low post for the Rebs. The same thing should be expected on Friday when Arthur and Jackson square off with Nova's duo of Antonio Pena (freshman) and Shane Clark (junior).

Pena has a ton of future potential but is young and inexperienced. Clark only logged 18 minute against Siena because Nova's talented guards were enough to take care of business. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, Clark will have to see more time in order to put bodies on the two talented Kansas forwards.

Oddsmakers recognized this mismatch immediately as they penciled in Kansas as an 11 1/2-point favorite to advance to the Elite Eight.

Kansas is used to playing the role of favorite this season, but the Jayhawks haven't lived up to the billing as much as one would think, posting a 17-14 ATS mark this year. However, Kansas was the chalk in each of its first two games and 'covered' both times. The Wildcats also 'covered' both of their tourney games, but that brought their tourney ATS record to just 2-5 the past three years.

Villanova had a losing ATS record this year at 14-17 and only went 6-5 as an underdog. The Wildcats were miserable this season following an 80-point effort (84 points scored against Siena), dropping the cash at an 0-6 ATS clip.

Nova has played Big 12 opposition tough over the years going 4-0 over the last three seasons and 7-1 the last 10, however the Wildcats did not face a Big 12 team this year.

Back to Bracket page.

Check out our NCAAB odds and matchup reports.


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