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Donbest.com
March 26, 2008

Sweet 16: No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 4 Washington St.

By Jimmy Sirody
Don Best senior writer

Thursday's NCAA East Regional semifinal game between North Carolina (34-2) and Washington State (26-8) at Charlotte Bobcats Arena will feature a clash of styles. The Tar Heels' push-push-push offense eclipsed triple-digits in their first two tournament victories while the Cougars down-and-dirty defense held their first two opponents to fewer than 50.

UNC is a complete team with plenty of firepower inside and outside plus the rebounding skills to match. But the way Wazzu played the second half against Winthrop and the way they dominated Notre Dame, there's little doubt they are playing their best basketball of the season.

This entire week, the national media will give a million reasons why the Cougars should lose this game. The majority of the Charlotte crowd will be rooting for the Tar Heels and Washington State can't afford to buy into the North Carolina/Dean Smith/Michael Jordan mystique.

Let's not forget that the Cougars may have more experience than any other team in the field. Their top six scorers are either juniors or seniors and they've played together for at least two years.

Washington State has two 6-foot-10 players along its front line - Aron Baynes and Robbie Cowgill - and rangy 6-foot-6 wing Kyle Weaver. Two other guards, Derrick Low and Taylor Rochestie, defend mostly from the three-point line in. Coach Tony Bennett employs a relentlessly plodding style that tries to frustrate opponents by running down the shot clock.

The Tar Heels and Wazzu are comparable in size, but North Carolina leads the nation with an average rebound advantage of 11.6 per game; Washington State ranks 152nd at 0.6.

North Carolina is second in the nation in scoring (89.9 PPG) and thrives in transition. Forward Tyler Hansbrough led the Atlantic Coast Conference in the regular-season averaging 23.1 points and 10.5 boards. Wayne Ellington is UNC's most consistent long distance threat, pouring in 16.8 points per game.

The Cougars have held 11 opponents to fewer than 50 points. The most they have given up is 81 - to UCLA in a loss.

North Carolina's offensive heroics in the first week have hogged most of the headlines. However, the Cougars put together one of the best defensive performances ever in an NCAA Tournament game against the Irish. Washington State held Notre Dame, which prides itself on running and attacking, to no fast break points.

The Cougars will need to get a few early baskets to gain confidence and keep North Carolina from feeding off the crowd's energy. They will also have to shoot better than they did against the Irish while still playing at a high level defensively.

The last time the Tar Heels won their first two tournament games by 20 or more points they went on to win the national championship in 1993 and 2005.

Coach Roy Williams' crew has thrived against good defensive teams (allowing less than 64 points per game) this season, cashing 10 straight. UNC has also 'covered' 19 of 25 against teams with winning records and 14 of 18 after winning two straight games by 15 points or more.

Washington State has cashed 13 of 16 versus good offensive teams (scoring 77+ PPG) over the last two seasons. However, the Cougars are 0-6 ATS against top-level teams (win percentage higher than 80 percent after 15 or more games).

Most offshore books opened the Tar Heels as an 8-point favorite with the 'total' set at 142 1/2.

Back to Bracket page.

Check out our NCAAB odds and matchup reports.


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