Super Bowl trends

By Jimmy Sirody
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The New York Giants made New England work hard for a 38-35 win when the teams last met on Dec. 29. Many feel that losing the final game of the regular season was the stepping stone the Giants needed to start them on their improbable run to the Super Bowl.

The omnipotent Patriots opened as 14-point favorites for their January 3 rematch with New York in Super Bowl XLII at the University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Ariz. New England has been performing poorly against the spread since midseason after beating the bookies brains out in the early going. That is the biggest reason eager early bird bettors grabbed the generous points with the Giants and dropped the number as low as 12.

The Patriots 'covered' in their first eight trips to the post in 2007, winning by an average margin of 25 1/2-points per game. However, the only games in which they beat the spread in their last seven regular season games were against Buffalo and Pittsburgh and in their last six games the AFC champs average margin of victory was 10.1.

No. 1 seeds have been a poor investment in Super Bowls past, failing to get the cash at an 8-3-2 clip. In addition, New England has made five appearances in the biggest game of them all in the last 21 years and 'covered' just once.

The Giants were one of the better bets on the board as dogs, getting the green in eight of 10 opportunities. They have also thrived in revenge mode, 'covering' 11 of 14 over the past three seasons.

The winner of the first meeting has gone on to cash at a 6-2-1 rate in Super Bowl rematches. However, underdogs getting fewer points the second time around are 7-3-1 ATS.

The NFC-East has won four of five and 'covered' five straight when facing the AFC-East. The Patriots beat that jinx when they overcame Philadelphia in 2005.

The great majority of Super Bowls have been lopsided affairs with 25 of 41 ultimate tests decided by 11 points or more. In most cases the point spread hasn't come into play. Only seven times in 38 years has the outright winner failed to 'cover.'

Pittsburgh and Seattle slipped 'under' the 'total' in 2006 and Indianapolis and Chicago ducked below the number in 2007. The last time three straight Super Bowl games have been on the low side was in 1975 when the Steelers and Vikings ducked 'under' for the seventh straight year.

The 'over' has cashed in 15 of the last 23 and six of nine games have eclipsed the total when it was 49 or higher. Teams that met in the regular season have scored more points eight of 11 times in Super Bowl rematches.

A specialist in separating the wheat from the chaff among all the trends and angles available to bettors, Jimmy Sirody does his homework and is a firm believer in quality over quantity. See Jimmy Sirody's
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